Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
